Overview
The ARIMA Plus model, being a part of the Forecasting report in Alvie, can be extended with optional custom training data and holidays through Google Sheets.
This allows you to include business-specific events, sales periods, or external factors that may affect performance.
With this setup, you can:
Use unsupported connectors (via manual data upload).
Add CRM or internal business metrics.
Account for unique holidays or sales periods.
How it works:
Create a Google Sheet, connect it in the Alvie interface, and the system integrates your data into ARIMA forecasts.
What Is Custom Data?
Custom data supplements standard marketing sources (e.g., Google Ads, Facebook).
It may include:
Unsupported Connectors: Data from non-integrated platforms.
CRM Data: Lead scores, pipeline, customer data.
Custom Metrics: KPIs, LTV, churn, or other business metrics.
External Data: Weather, economic indicators, competitor info.
Custom Holidays: Unique events, sales, or milestones.
Key benefit: You can forecast virtually any metric with historical data provided through Google Sheets.
Setting Up Google Sheets Integration
1. Create Your Google Sheet
Make a copy of the template here.
Your sheet must include the following headers:
Column Name | Description | Example |
custom_date | Date of data point | 2024-01-15 |
market | Market/region | NO |
channel | Channel grouping | Display |
custom_currency_code | Currency code | EUR |
custom_conversion_name | Conversion name | Purchase |
custom_spend | Spend amount | 1500.50 |
custom_conversions | Number of conversions | 25 |
custom_conversion_value | Conversion value | 5000.00 |
-------- Holiday cols --- |
|
|
custom_holiday_name | Holiday/event name | BIG_SALE |
custom_holiday_region | Region for holiday | SE |
custom_holiday_date | Holiday date | 2024-11-29 |
custom_holiday_preholiday_days | Days before holiday | 3 |
custom_holiday_postholiday_days | Days after holiday | 2 |
2. Data Format Requirements
Accepted Date Formats
Supported formats include:
2024-01-15 (YYYY-MM-DD)
01/15/2024 (MM/DD/YYYY)
15/01/2024 (DD/MM/YYYY)
20240115 (YYYYMMDD)
Holiday Configuration
Pre-holiday days: Minimum 1.
Post-holiday days: Minimum 1.
Region: Can match the report’s configured region or any custom. Leave blank to use report default.
Any repeated holidays (e.g. year-on-year) must be of same length (pre/post holidays)
3. How to Add a Google Sheet with custom training data to the Forecasting Report
Connect the Google Sheet
Follow the steps in the documentation to connect a new data source in Alvie.
Choose "Google Sheets" as the data source and select your newly created "Arima+ Forecasting Input" Google Sheet file.
Integrate the Sheet into the Precis Starter Report
Go to Data & Reporting → Reporting Solutions and open the Forecasting Report..
In Step 2, select "Google Sheet" as the data source.
From the dropdown menu, choose the Google Sheet file you just added.
Custom Holidays
What Are They?
Custom holidays are optional events you can define to improve forecast accuracy. Examples:
Sales (end-of-season, flash, member-only).
Milestones (launches, openings).
Campaign launches.
Local/regional events.
Why They Matter
They help the ARIMA model:
Improve forecast accuracy.
Reduce anomaly detection errors.
Separate holiday effects from trends.
Support planning around recurring events.
Best Practices
Data
Include required columns.
Use supported date formats.
Keep naming consistent.
Holiday Setup
Use descriptive names (e.g., “End of Season Sale 2024”).
Pre-holiday days: 1–7 recommended.
Post-holiday days: 1–3 recommended.
Use specific regions (e.g., DK, SE).
Example Use Cases
E-commerce:
custom_holiday_name: "End of Season Sale"
custom_holiday_date: "2024-03-15"
custom_holiday_preholiday_days: 7
custom_holiday_postholiday_days: 3
custom_holiday_region: "DK"
Service Business:
custom_holiday_name: "New Service Launch"
custom_holiday_date: "2024-06-01"
custom_holiday_preholiday_days: 3
custom_holiday_postholiday_days: 1
custom_holiday_region: "SE"
Multi-Market:
custom_holiday_name: "Annual Member Sale"
custom_holiday_date: "2024-03-15"
custom_holiday_preholiday_days: 14
custom_holiday_postholiday_days: 7
custom_holiday_region: "NO"